Ready for a leap?

Readiness for a big leap

Pacala & Socolow published their stabilisation wedges to show that action on climate change was possible now, and that we didn’t have to wait until there were perfect technologies. In pointing out the shortcomings of regulatory approaches, technology, markets, or management theory, I am not advocating that we do nothing except wait for the best. After all, the perfect mousetrap would probably only work on the perfect mouse. On the contrary, the perfect may never arrive, and if it does it’s likely to be too late. Instead we should be making the best of what we have.

But there are two things needed to achieve this. First, we need to acknowledge that no single discipline has the silver bullet: there are significant shortcomings in all of the perspectives mentioned on this site, and as various contributions to the In the Shift blog show we add consumer behaviour, finance, economics, and others to that list.

Second, we need to properly understand the parameters of possibility applying to any single approach; in other words, think seriously about the strengths and limitations of each. Based on that, we can identify and prioritise the gaps: gaps in policy, in theory, and in practice. At present, there is understandably more effort put into promoting the strength of each approach, and a reluctance to dwell too much on the weaknesses. But it is only by having a realistic sense of what can and cannot be achieved by following any single path that we will be able to distinguish the quick wins from the areas where greater incentivisation is required, where there is most need to invest, and who (be it business, government, civil society, or combinations of all three) will play what role.

The low carbon economy and the process of decarbonisation pose particular challenges for models of business born out of an era of industrial revolution when economic growth did not so blatantly threaten the well-being of the planet. Now the pending revolution is the one climate change threatens to impose on business. The decision managers face is not whether to change – the less change we initiate now will necessitate the greatest change later on – but when, how, and at what rate. Whatever choices we make, business will never be the same again, a fact that is at once daunting and exciting. Time matters in this situation, and while it is comforting that we have some possible answers, the bigger task now is to find the right questions to put at the heart of our future decisions.